How many people did the 2026 haze kill? New estimates suggest thousands. Smoke from forest and land fires across Indonesia caused an estimated 3,560 deaths in September alone, more than double the August figure, according to a study by the Helsinki based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, known as CREA, as reported by VnExpress citing AFP. Across the border, a report for Malaysian manufacturers estimates the haze contributed to about 1,700 premature deaths in Malaysia and cost RM8 billion.
The skies have now cleared over most of the region, but the bill is only starting to arrive. The 2026 fire season, driven by El Nino dry conditions, closed schools, emptied factory floors and pushed millions into hospitals and clinics. For investors in palm oil, pulp and paper, and for manufacturers relying on regional supply chains, the haze is no longer just an environmental story. It is an economic one.
Indonesia's deadliest month
About 57.8 million people in Indonesia breathed unhealthy to hazardous air in September, a record and up from a peak of 41.3 million in August, CREA said in a study released on 29 October. Its estimate covers deaths within days of exposure to PM2.5, fine particles small enough to penetrate the lungs and bloodstream, which the World Health Organization links to a higher risk of illness and premature death.
Non fire pollution from power generation, industry and transport caused a further 1,750 deaths, bringing September's total to 5,310, up 42 percent from about 3,740 in August. In four provinces of Kalimantan, the Indonesian part of Borneo, pollution deaths more than doubled to 1,470, with fire smoke behind 94 to 99 percent of them. In five Sumatran provinces, deaths rose to 1,420, with smoke causing more than 90 percent in Riau, Jambi and West Sumatra.
Population weighted PM2.5 exposure averaged 36 micrograms per cubic metre nationwide in September, more than seven times the WHO's annual guideline of 5 micrograms, about 10 times the guideline in Sumatra and 24 times in Kalimantan. Indonesia's Health Ministry said it had recorded 333,470 cases of acute respiratory infection in seven fire hit provinces, nearly a quarter of them in children under five.
The cost to Malaysia: RM8 billion and 1,700 lives
In Malaysia, a report commissioned by the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers and conducted by Piyu Ke, chief scientist at sustainability analytics firm Carbon Spur, estimated RM8 billion, about 1.97 billion dollars, in welfare losses from the haze between 1 July and 22 October, according to VnExpress. The study combined satellite data, air quality monitoring, atmospheric modelling and industry surveys.
It estimated that the haze contributed to roughly 1,700 premature deaths, about 1,600 of them attributed directly to smoke from fires outside Malaysia. The authors cautioned that these are statistical estimates across the population, not individually identified deaths, and that if fire smoke were assumed to be no more harmful than ordinary fine particulate matter, the estimate would fall to about 600. They put the health related economic burden at between RM3 billion and RM15 billion, measured as society's willingness to pay to reduce the risk of early death.
School closures during the smog accounted for an estimated 8.4 million to 13.4 million lost student days. That rippled into the workforce, as parents stayed home with children. The report noted that its findings mainly reflect industrial Selangor and Penang, with little data from Sarawak.
Haze used to be measured in air quality readings. In 2026 it is being measured in lost school days, idle production lines and death tolls. That changes who pays attention.
Factories feel the smoke
In a survey of 86 member sites of the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers, more than two thirds reported operational disruptions. Of the 59 sites that detailed the impact, 81 percent saw higher sick leave and 63 percent struggled with staff availability because employees had to stay home with children during school closures.
As a result, 37 percent of disrupted sites reported reduced output, 27 percent temporarily suspended at least one operation and 14 percent faced delays in production schedules and deliveries. Federation president Jacob Lee Chor Kok said the haze must be treated as a direct threat to labour productivity, economic sustainability and regional competitiveness. The main costs of the haze include:
- Premature deaths and respiratory illness across the region
- Millions of lost school days in Malaysia
- Higher sick leave and staff shortages at factories
- Reduced output and delayed deliveries for manufacturers
- Reputational risk for palm oil, pulp and paper exporters
"Manufacturing industries are increasingly interconnected through regional and global supply chains. Environmental disruptions in one country can affect economic activities and business operations across national boundaries," Lee said, according to AsiaOne.
Why Indonesia has not declared an emergency
CREA said President Prabowo Subianto had not declared the fires a national emergency despite calls from lawmakers, environmental groups and protesters, with officials arguing that regional capacity had not collapsed. The think tank suggested the reluctance may also stem from concern that a national declaration would make Indonesia liable for haze crossing its borders and hurt confidence in its palm oil, pulp and paper exports.
Responding to student protests on 28 October, Indonesia's government communications agency said it had deployed more than 72,000 personnel across six provinces to fight the fires, along with 2,106 health workers, and had distributed 5.3 million masks. Rain in parts of Sumatra and Kalimantan in late October brought some relief, although forecasters expected patchy showers rather than an abrupt change of season.
Neighbours have taken their own steps. Singapore has used its transboundary haze law against companies linked to fires, as covered in our report on Singapore's haze law notices to 10 firms. Malaysia said it will introduce new measures against recurring smog next year, when it chairs the ASEAN Sub Regional Ministerial Steering Committee on Transboundary Haze Pollution.
What it means for investors and the region
For investors, the haze is a growing environmental, social and governance risk. Companies in palm oil, pulp and paper face scrutiny over fires on or near their concessions, and buyers in Europe and elsewhere are tightening rules on deforestation and supply chain traceability. Repeated haze seasons can hurt access to markets and financing.
For governments, the new estimates strengthen the case for regional action, from fire prevention and peatland restoration to stronger enforcement against companies that clear land by burning. With El Nino conditions expected to push up rice prices in 2027 as well, Southeast Asia's climate risks are increasingly economic risks.
For households, the lesson is practical. Air purifiers, masks and school closure plans have become part of the annual calendar in parts of Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, and health authorities urge vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly and people with heart or lung conditions, to limit time outdoors when readings are unhealthy.
How many people died from the 2026 haze in Indonesia?
CREA estimated fire smoke caused about 3,560 deaths in Indonesia in September 2026 alone.
How many people died from the haze in Malaysia?
A report for the Federation of Malaysian Manufacturers estimated about 1,700 premature deaths between July and October.
How much did the haze cost Malaysia?
An estimated RM8 billion, about 1.97 billion dollars, in welfare losses.
Who produced the Indonesian haze death estimate?
The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Helsinki based think tank.
How many Indonesians breathed unhealthy air?
About 57.8 million people in September, a record.
How bad was air pollution in Kalimantan?
PM2.5 exposure was about 24 times the WHO annual guideline.
What causes the haze?
Agricultural and peatland fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan, made worse by El Nino dry conditions.
Did the haze close schools in Malaysia?
Yes. School closures cost an estimated 8.4 million to 13.4 million student days.
How did the haze affect factories?
37 percent of disrupted sites reported reduced output and 27 percent suspended at least one operation.
Has Indonesia declared a national emergency?
No. Officials said regional capacity had not collapsed and task forces were operating.
How many respiratory infections were recorded?
Indonesia's Health Ministry recorded 333,470 cases in seven fire hit provinces.
How many firefighters did Indonesia deploy?
More than 72,000 personnel across six provinces, plus 2,106 health workers.
Are the death figures exact?
No. Both studies give statistical estimates across the population, not identified individual deaths.
What is Malaysia doing about the haze?
Malaysia will introduce new measures next year as chair of the ASEAN sub regional haze committee.
Which other countries were affected?
Smoke also raised pollution in Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Timor-Leste, Al Jazeera reported.
The 2026 haze season has left a heavy toll: an estimated 3,560 smoke deaths in Indonesia in a single month, around 1,700 premature deaths in Malaysia and RM8 billion in losses. The new estimates turn an annual environmental complaint into a measurable economic and public health crisis that Southeast Asia can no longer treat as seasonal weather.
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