JPMorgan, Goldman, Citi and Wells Fargo report on 13 October: what Q3 bank earnings will reveal about trading, rates and the Fed

The third-quarter reporting season for US banks begins on Tuesday 13 October, when JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo publish results before the market opens. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock follow on Wednesday 14 October, with PNC, US Bancorp, Charles Schwab and BNY on Thursday and Truist, M&T, Regions, Citizens and Travelers on Friday. Monday is a US federal holiday, with bond markets closed and stock markets open.

This is the first full quarter of results since the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75 to 4.00 percent, its first hike in three years. FactSet data cited in previews point to bank earnings growth of about 10 percent, in line with historical averages. That headline expectation is modest. The details underneath it, from trading revenue to deposit costs and credit provisions, will tell markets far more about where the economy is heading.

The calendar for bank earnings week

• Tuesday 13 October, before the open: JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo.
• Wednesday 14 October: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock.
• Thursday 15 October: PNC, US Bancorp, Charles Schwab, BNY.
• Friday 16 October: Truist, M&T, Regions, Citizens, Travelers.

The order matters because the first reports set the tone. JPMorgan's commentary on the consumer, the economy and net interest income is often treated as a read-through for the whole sector, and its chief executive's remarks on the call are among the most quoted of the season. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley give the clearest picture of trading and investment banking, while Wells Fargo and the regional lenders reflect lending and deposit trends closer to Main Street.

The same week brings the September consumer price index on Wednesday and producer prices and retail sales on Thursday, so bank results will land in the middle of the most important macro data of the month. Our separate preview of the CPI release covers what the inflation numbers could mean for rates.

Trading desks after a volatile quarter

The third quarter gave trading desks plenty to work with. Currencies moved sharply, with the dollar strengthening and the euro sliding to a 16-month low below 1.12 against the dollar in early October. Oil traded around 100 dollars a barrel for Brent amid Middle East tension, and bitcoin swung between the low 80,000s and above 87,000 dollars. Equity indexes pushed toward record highs, led by semiconductor and AI-linked shares.

Volatility usually lifts fixed income, currencies and commodities revenue, as clients reposition and spreads widen. It also helps equities trading, particularly derivatives and prime brokerage, when hedge funds are active. Analysts will look for whether banks beat their own guidance on markets revenue and what they say about client activity in the first weeks of October.

The counterpoint is risk. Sharp moves can produce losses on inventory, and they test risk management. The tone of executives on risk appetite and client positioning will matter as much as the revenue figure itself.

The headline is a 10 percent earnings gain. The signal is in deposit costs, card delinquencies and what trading desks say about October.

Prime brokerage and financing revenue are worth watching separately. When hedge funds are active and leveraged, banks earn more from lending to them and servicing their trades. Commentary on hedge fund leverage and positioning can also hint at where crowded trades sit, which matters for anyone trading the same markets.

Net interest income in a hiking cycle

Higher policy rates generally raise what banks earn on loans and securities, but they also raise what banks must pay depositors. Net interest income, the gap between the two, depends on how quickly each side reprices. After years of cuts and a long pause, the September hike restarts that tug of war.

Investors will focus on guidance for net interest income for the fourth quarter and 2027. A bank that raises its outlook is signalling confidence that lending margins will widen. A bank that holds or trims guidance is signalling that deposit competition, or slower loan growth, is absorbing the benefit of higher rates.

Deposit behaviour is the variable to watch. If customers move cash from low-yield accounts into money market funds and higher-yielding products, banks must pay more to keep funding. Commentary on deposit outflows, pricing and mix will show how much pressure banks are under.

Regional banks face a different version of the same problem. They rely more heavily on deposits and lend more to local businesses and property, so they feel deposit competition and commercial real estate stress more acutely than the largest banks. Their results later in the week will show whether the pressure is spreading beyond Wall Street.

Credit quality and the consumer

Credit provisions are the most direct read on the health of borrowers. Card delinquencies, auto loan performance and commercial real estate exposure have been the main areas of concern through 2026. The weak September jobs report, which showed only 29,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2 percent, adds to the attention on consumer resilience.

Banks set aside reserves based on their economic forecasts, so a rise in provisions can reflect a gloomier outlook as much as actual losses. Analysts will separate the two by looking at net charge-offs, which measure loans actually written off, against the reserve build.

Bank of America's card spending data offers context. Its consumer checkpoint showed card spending per household up 6.2 percent year on year, or 5.1 percent excluding gasoline, though month-on-month spending was more muted. Retail sales for September, due on Thursday, are forecast to rise 0.3 percent.

Small business lending is another area of focus. Firms that borrowed when rates were lower now face higher refinancing costs, and any rise in late payments would show up first in bank commentary on business banking. Payment platforms that lend to small merchants, such as Stripe, which agreed to buy small business lender Parafin in late September, are watching the same signals.

Investment banking and dealmaking

Mergers, listings and debt issuance have picked up in 2026, and the fee pools that come with them are a key driver for Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the investment banking arms of JPMorgan and Citi. In fintech and financial services alone, the past month brought deals such as Stripe's agreement to buy Parafin, Anchorage Digital's purchase of Routable, and AvaTrade's agreement to acquire most of FXCM.

Advisory revenue is recognised when deals close, so the third quarter reflects transactions agreed months earlier. More useful is commentary on pipelines: how many deals are signed but not completed, and whether higher rates are slowing leveraged buyouts or encouraging companies to lock in financing before rates rise further.

Listings are the other gauge. A strong pipeline of initial public offerings for the fourth quarter would suggest confidence in risk appetite, while delays would point the other way.

What it means outside the US

Wall Street results move markets far beyond New York. Asian bank shares and currencies often react to the tone of US bank calls, especially comments on dollar funding, trade finance and the economic outlook. For Southeast Asian markets, the dollar's direction after these results and the CPI release will shape currency moves in the baht, ringgit, rupiah and peso.

Fintech and broker shares also take cues from bank trading results. Strong client activity at Goldman and Morgan Stanley tends to read across to retail brokers and exchanges, while weak results can weigh on the sector. That linkage became clear in early October when IG Group's results hit shares across the listed broker universe.

For traders, the practical point is timing. Results arrive before the US open, with calls shortly after, and the biggest moves in bank shares and related indexes typically come in the first hour of trading.

This week's bank results will be read less for their headline earnings than for what they say about the turn in the rate cycle. Trading desks should benefit from a volatile quarter, net interest income will reveal how deposits are behaving after the Fed's first hike in three years, and credit provisions will show how worried lenders are about a softening jobs market. Combined with Wednesday's inflation data, the results will set the tone for markets heading into the Fed's next decision.