US midterms today: when results land in Asia, and what a Democratic House means for the dollar, data centres and crypto

When will US midterm results be known in Asia? From Wednesday morning. Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November, and because Bangkok, Jakarta and Ho Chi Minh City are 12 hours ahead of US Eastern time, the first polls close around 07:00 on Wednesday local time, with most results arriving through the Asian trading day. The question is whether Democrats can take control of Congress from President Donald Trump's Republican Party. Democrats are widely predicted to win the House of Representatives, while the Senate is more in doubt, according to Reuters via Free Malaysia Today.

For Asian investors this is not a distant American affair. A shift in Congress could shape US spending on AI data centres, the next fight over the debt ceiling, tariffs and the dollar. And markets go into the vote unusually fragile, after a brutal October for hedge funds, a sell off in big tech and the largest crypto theft on record.

What polls say, and why traders are cautious

Polling points to strong anti incumbent sentiment, the typical pattern in a midterm, when the party holding the White House often loses seats. But Eric Robertsen, global head of research and chief strategist at Standard Chartered, warned that polls do not always translate into results. "Polling suggests strong anti incumbent sentiment, but that does not always translate into actual election outcomes, as we have seen in Brazil and now in Israel," he said.

The market backdrop makes surprises more dangerous. Andreja Cobeljic, head of derivatives trading at AMINA Bank, said hedge funds had suffered "significant losses" in October, leaving markets with "little capacity" to absorb any shocks from the election. Wall Street closed sharply lower at the end of October amid worries about AI spending, and tech shares in Asia have struggled to rebound.

Traders are also juggling a packed week, with US October jobs data and several central bank decisions due alongside the vote. The dollar steadied at 101.94 against a basket of currencies on Monday, while the euro hovered near a 17 month low after Fitch cut France's outlook to negative.

What a Democratic Congress could mean for markets

The biggest policy questions concern spending and borrowing. Robertsen said that in the event of a Democratic sweep of both chambers, capital spending plans for data centres and AI infrastructure could face growing obstacles at the state level, and the next debate on raising the US debt ceiling would be among the most contentious in recent history.

A split Congress, with Democrats in the House and Republicans holding the Senate, would likely mean gridlock: fewer new laws, more investigations and harder budget negotiations. Markets have often coped well with gridlock in the past, because it limits sudden policy changes, but debt ceiling standoffs have caused bouts of volatility, including for US Treasury yields that Asian central banks and investors hold in large amounts.

Trade policy is the other channel. Tariffs are largely set by the White House, but a Democratic House could hold hearings and use budget powers to challenge them. After the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under emergency powers earlier this year, the administration has turned to other legal tools, as covered in our report on the Section 301 tariff wall and its global impact.

Asian markets do not vote in this election, but they will trade it. A Democratic House changes the odds on debt ceiling drama, data centre spending and tariffs, all of which land in Asia.

Power bills and data centres are on the ballot

For the first time in a national election, electricity prices have become a major issue. Electricity prices for US homes have risen more than 10 percent since 2024, outpacing other prices, according to Energy Information Administration data cited by Reuters via CNA. Bills have grown even faster in battleground states such as Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which are also hot spots for new data centres.

Many candidates for state office have backed cracking down on utilities, from freezing rate increases to cutting guaranteed returns. In Ohio, where residential bills rose more than 20 percent in two years, Democrat Amy Acton has promised lower energy bills and supports a data centre moratorium, while her Republican opponent Vivek Ramaswamy has said residents living near data centres would not pay electricity bills at all. Governors will be chosen in 36 states, and seats on nine state utility commissions are up for election, including in data centre hubs Arizona and Georgia.

The stakes for the industry are large. Utilities are on track to request record rate increases of about 31 billion dollars this year and plan nearly 1.3 trillion dollars of capital spending over five years, according to S&P Global's Regulatory Research Associates. Fitch downgraded its outlook for the North American utility sector to "deteriorating" in June, citing political pressure to limit bills and profits.

Why Asia should care about the data centre fight

US data centre spending is one of the biggest drivers of demand for Asian exports, from Taiwanese and Korean chips to Malaysian and Thai electronics assembly. South Korea's exports nearly doubled in October on AI investment, and Southeast Asian factories are deeply tied into the same supply chain. If state level politics slow the build out of US data centres, the effect would ripple through Asian orders. The channels to watch include:

• US data centre and AI capital spending plans
• The debt ceiling debate and Treasury yields
• Tariff policy and congressional oversight
• The dollar against Asian currencies
• Risk appetite for tech stocks and crypto

There is also a competitive angle. If US states make it harder or more expensive to build data centres, some capacity could shift to other regions, including Southeast Asia, where Johor and Batam are already competing for projects. But Asian hubs face their own electricity and water constraints, so any shift would be gradual.

What the vote means for crypto and the dollar

Crypto has been an active player in this campaign. CoinDesk reported that crypto political action committees made a big Republican push in the final weeks before the vote, betting that a Republican Congress would be friendlier to the industry. The outcome will shape the fate of pending crypto legislation, including rules for exchanges and stablecoins.

The market enters the vote bruised. Bitcoin traded near 78,000 dollars on Monday after hitting a six week low on Friday, following the 6.3 billion dollar Binance hack, as covered in our report on the Binance hack and how the exchange covered 95 percent of losses. For the dollar, analysts see a split Congress as broadly neutral, while a Democratic sweep could raise fiscal uncertainty.

The 2026 midterms will decide who controls Congress, with Democrats favoured in the House and the Senate in play. For Asia, the outcome matters through data centre spending, debt ceiling risk, tariffs and the dollar, and it lands on markets already shaken by October's losses. Results start arriving on Wednesday morning, Asia time.