Coinbase reports on 29 October: an Irish fine, 15 minute prediction bets and the question of where crypto revenue comes from now

When does Coinbase report earnings? After the US market close on Thursday 29 October, with a live question and answer session the same day, the company announced on 14 October. That is Friday morning in Bangkok, Singapore and Manila, and the results arrive at an awkward moment for the largest US crypto exchange: bitcoin is stuck around 80,000 dollars, regulators in Europe have just fined it again, and it is betting on prediction markets to replace fading trading revenue.

The quarter will answer a question that matters for every crypto platform, including those expanding into Southeast Asia. When token trading slows, where does an exchange make its money? Coinbase's answers, from stablecoin income to subscriptions and now short term price bets, will shape how investors value the whole sector.

What to expect from the numbers

Coinbase has had a difficult 2026. It reported first quarter revenue of 1.4 billion dollars, down 21 percent from the previous quarter, alongside a net loss of 394 million dollars, although adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation stayed positive at 303 million dollars, according to Blockchain.News. Second quarter revenue fell further to 1.22 billion dollars, with a loss of about 359 million dollars.

The third quarter backdrop was mixed. Bitcoin traded in a wide range and has fallen this year, ether has underperformed, and spot crypto ETFs have seen outflows in recent weeks. Lower prices and volumes usually mean lower transaction revenue, Coinbase's traditional profit engine.

Investors will focus on the mix. Stablecoin related income, custody, staking and subscription services have become more important as trading fees fluctuate. Any sign that these steadier revenue lines are growing fast enough to offset weaker trading will be key to the share price reaction.

The Irish fine and the safeguarding problem

Coinbase heads into results with a fresh regulatory blemish. On 22 October, the Central Bank of Ireland fined Coinbase Ireland 3.25 million euros, about 3.6 million dollars, over failures in safeguarding customer funds and overseeing outsourced services, as reported by CoinDesk.

The regulator said Coinbase Ireland "placed excessive reliance on the U.S. based Coinbase Group as an outsourced service provider to implement safeguarding processes and controls" and failed to adequately safeguard customers' funds through inadequate system design and insufficient control testing. Coinbase disclosed that coding errors left a safeguarding account underfunded by an average of 0.54 percent in 2023 and the first half of 2024, and said no customers lost money or were unable to access their funds.

In crypto, the biggest regulatory risk is no longer whether you are licensed. It is whether your controls actually work in every country you operate.

It was not the first Irish penalty. The fine follows a 21.4 million euro penalty imposed on Coinbase Europe in 2025 for anti money laundering failures. For a company that markets itself as the most compliant major exchange, repeated fines over controls are a reputational cost even when the amounts are small.

The prediction market bet

Coinbase's newest product shows where it thinks growth lies. The exchange has launched prediction markets that let users bet on whether bitcoin, ether and solana will rise or fall over timeframes ranging from 15 minutes to a day, according to Coinfomania. It is part of a broader push by crypto exchanges into prediction markets as token trading declines, a trend highlighted by the Financial Times.

The logic is engagement. Short term contracts keep users active even when markets are quiet, and prediction markets on politics and sports have exploded in the United States, with platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket recording huge volumes ahead of the November midterm elections. The risk is regulatory: very short term price bets look a lot like binary options, which many countries restrict or ban for retail investors.

That matters in Asia, where regulators are generally strict on such products. Thailand's central bank, for example, does not permit retail speculative foreign exchange trading through platforms, and many Asian regulators treat binary style products with suspicion. The key questions for Coinbase's earnings include:

• How much revenue now comes from stablecoins, custody, staking and subscriptions
• Whether trading volumes stabilised in September and October
• Early uptake of prediction markets and their regulatory treatment
• Costs and provisions linked to regulatory actions in Europe
• International growth, including Asia and the new Singapore engineering hub

Coinbase and Southeast Asia

Coinbase has been building its presence in Singapore. It launched an engineering hub in partnership with the Singapore Economic Development Board this month, and it is a member of the Monetary Authority of Singapore's BLOOM initiative in agentic payments, a project that Malaysia and Thailand joined last week, as we covered in our report on Malaysia and Thailand joining BLOOM.

Southeast Asia is a competitive battleground. Global exchanges are buying licences and building local presences, as Bitget's deal for a licensed Thai exchange shows, which we analysed in our report on Bitget buying its way into Thailand. Coinbase's results will show how much it is willing to invest in international expansion while its home market revenues are under pressure.

For investors in the region who hold Coinbase shares or watch it as a bellwether, Thursday's numbers will be a read on the health of the entire crypto industry heading into 2027.

Coinbase's third quarter results will show how a leading crypto exchange adapts when trading revenue fades and regulators keep watching. Fresh fines in Ireland, a push into short term prediction markets and steady investment in Asia all point to a company searching for durable growth. Thursday's numbers will reveal whether that search is paying off, and what it means for crypto platforms across the region.